{"id":12035,"date":"2020-04-20T11:45:09","date_gmt":"2020-04-20T09:45:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/auren.com\/ar\/blog\/impacto-economico-del-covid-19\/"},"modified":"2020-04-20T11:45:09","modified_gmt":"2020-04-20T09:45:09","slug":"impacto-economico-del-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/auren.com\/ar\/blog\/impacto-economico-del-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"Impacto econ\u00f3mico del COVID-19"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>En este dif\u00edcil contexto, decidimos evaluar el impacto econ\u00f3mico de la pandemia del Coronavirus COVID-19, y el \u201caislamiento social, preventivo y obligatorio\u201d establecido mediante el Decreto 297\/2020 desde el 20 de marzo de 2020.<\/p>\n<p>Esta tarea no est\u00e1 exenta de desaf\u00edos, puesto que no encontramos antecedentes similares recientes para utilizar como referencia o comparaci\u00f3n. Un paralelismo podr\u00eda ser el Brexit: unos d\u00edas despu\u00e9s del refer\u00e9ndum donde la mayor\u00eda de los brit\u00e1nicos decidieron irse de la Uni\u00f3n Europea, Mark Carney, el Gobernador del Bank of England, organiz\u00f3 una conferencia de prensa para comunicar el impacto ec\u00f3nomico y financiero de esa decisi\u00f3n.&nbsp; Para sorpresa de todos, la conclusi\u00f3n del Bank of England fue que hab\u00eda una gran incertidumbre sobre diversas variables clave de la econom\u00eda, pero que no se pod\u00eda estimar o cuantificar su impacto porque era un evento que nunca hab\u00eda sucedido en el pasado.<\/p>\n<p>Los argentinos elegimos priorizar la salud por sobre la econom\u00eda. Esta l\u00f3gica e irrefutable decisi\u00f3n no nos exime de los perjuicios econ\u00f3micos que estas medidas generan.<\/p>\n<p>Los lineamientos que utilizamos para esta evaluaci\u00f3n consideran:<\/p>\n<ol type=\"a\">\n<li><strong>OFERTA<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>La continuidad de las operaciones durante el aislamiento.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>DEMANDA<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>El comportamiento de la demanda de los bienes y servicios que cada organizaci\u00f3n provee.<\/p>\n<p>Lo que en principio se gener\u00f3 como una crisis de oferta (no poder producir y ofrecer bienes en el mercado), r\u00e1pidamente se podr\u00eda transformar en una crisis de demanda (la poblaci\u00f3n bajar\u00eda su nivel de consumo a un nivel m\u00e1s bajo, o inclusive por un tiempo a un nivel cercano al m\u00ednimo de subsistencia). Existe un potencial impacto de esta pandemia en el comportamiento de los consumidores, que podr\u00eda llegar a representar un cambio de paradigma a nivel mundial.<\/p>\n<p>Imaginemos un caso concreto. Si una persona estaba evaluando, o estaba decidido a cambiar el auto, comprar un electrodom\u00e9stico o hacer un viaje en los pr\u00f3ximos meses; \u00bfc\u00f3mo afectar\u00eda la pandemia en su decisi\u00f3n? \u00bfSeguir\u00eda dispuesto a realizar esa compra o la postergar\u00eda o cancelar\u00eda?<\/p>\n<p>En base a estas pautas, dise\u00f1amos una matriz de riesgo e impacto, para calificar a cada organizaci\u00f3n objeto del relevamiento:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery columns-1 is-cropped wp-block-gallery-3 is-layout-flex\">\n<ul class=\"blocks-gallery-grid\">\n<li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\">\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"531\" height=\"109\" data-src=\"https:\/\/auren.com\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/migration\/2020\/04\/cuadro-JP.png\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"10159\" data-full-url=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/auren.com\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/cuadro-JP.png?fit=531%2C109&amp;ssl=1\" data-link=\"https:\/\/auren.com\/ar\/?attachment_id=10159\" class=\"wp-image-10159 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/auren.com\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/migration\/2020\/04\/cuadro-JP.png 531w, https:\/\/auren.com\/ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/migration\/2020\/04\/cuadro-JP-300x62.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 531px) 100vw, 531px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 531px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 531\/109;\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/figure>\n<p>Nuestro relevamiento indica que:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>IMPACTO ALTO<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Aproximadamente un <strong>25%<\/strong> de las organizaciones, tendr\u00e1 un impacto muy significativo, vinculadas con actividades que requieren presencia f\u00edsica: la industria, construcci\u00f3n, transporte, turismo y entretenimiento. Creemos que el apoyo del Estado debe estar focalizado en este sector.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>IMPACTO MEDIO<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Un <strong>50%<\/strong> de las organizaciones tendr\u00e1 un impacto indirecto producido de la ca\u00edda en la demanda de bienes y servicios de su sector. El impacto en este caso depende especialmente de las caracter\u00edsticas espec\u00edficas de cada organizaci\u00f3n, y de su nivel de relaci\u00f3n con el resto.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>IMPACTO BAJO<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Finalmente, el \u00faltimo <strong>25%<\/strong> de las organizaciones tendr\u00e1 un impacto menor, especialmente en las organizaciones vinculadas a las actividades definidas como esenciales (alimentos, agrobusiness, energ\u00eda), y a las que no requieren presencia f\u00edsica (tech, e-commerce, servicios a distancia).<\/p>\n<p>Otro factor importante a tener en cuenta es la temporalidad de las medidas. Si bien las empresas ya est\u00e1n en conocimiento del impacto del COVID-19 en sus operaciones, todav\u00eda persiste una gran incertidumbre que consiste en por cu\u00e1nto tiempo m\u00e1s estar\u00e1n afectados a esta nueva realidad, y c\u00f3mo ser\u00e1 la reacci\u00f3n posterior a la finalizaci\u00f3n del aislamiento.<\/p>\n<p>Esperamos brindar algo de luz en este mar de incertidumbre que estamos navegando junto a toda la humanidad.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Javier Panno &#8211; Quality Manager de Auren<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>En este dif\u00edcil contexto, decidimos evaluar el impacto econ\u00f3mico de la pandemia del Coronavirus COVID-19, y el \u201caislamiento social, preventivo y obligatorio\u201d establecido mediante el Decreto 297\/2020 desde el 20 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":12036,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"blog-category":[],"class_list":["post-12035","blog","type-blog","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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